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June 27, 2011

Stanley Cup Finals: Game 6

Tags: Cup, Stanley Cup

The Stanley Cup is in the building tonight in Boston as Vancouver looks to become the fourth straight team to clinch Lord Stanleys Mug on the road. The Canucks will have to have some very selective amnesia though because they played quite poorly in their last two games in Boston and they know that with the Bruins being desperate tonight, things are only going to get tougher. Boston outscored Vancouver 12-1 in those two other home games and will need to rekindle that offensive spark after once again getting shutout by Roberto Luongo in the last contest.

In order to get that much needed win, Boston will once again have to make life difficult for Luongo in his crease and get bodies in front of him on every shot. If they can do that early on and get one or two by him, those doubts of playing in this building will start to grow in Luongos mind and then it really becomes time for Boston to pressure him. Although this has been quite a low-scoring series with both teams getting shut-out in each of the past two, I expect both offenses to execute better tonight with the Cup on the line. The Bruins are 5-0 SU in their last five home games and 6-1 SU as a home favorite of -150 or less and need those trends to continue badly tonight if the season is to continue.

Vancouvers ability to close has always been questioned in these playoffs, but they have gotten better at it since the opening round against Chicago. They closed out the 2nd round on the road in Nashville and then beat the Sharks in their first opportunity in the Conference Finals. They have shown throughout the playoffs that they are susceptible to getting blown out on the road (see Chicago and Boston series) but at the same time they have won at least one road game in all three rounds, including a perfect 3-0 SU away from home against Nashville. Tonight is their only shot at keeping that road trend alive and man what a win it would be.

The total for this game sits at 5 once again with the majority of the action coming in on the low side. That isnt surprising given how this series has played out, but as I mentioned before, I think the offensive will be amped up a bit more on both sides tonight. Boston has to come out and force the play if they want this series to continue, while Vancouver has to put out a better effort than the 1 goal they scored in Boston in Games 3 and 4. The Canucks are 9-2-1 O/U when playing as a road dog of +150 or less and they are 2-0-2 O/U off of two days rest. Bostons over/under record in their last 6 home games is 5-1 O/U and they already showed they can bounce back offensively in this series after getting shut out.

I am staying away from the side although I do lean towards the Canucks being the smarter play at plus-money, but I am unsure if they will be able to match Bostons intensity and desperation in this game. I do see both teams potting at least two goals apiece though and am going against the norm and siding with the high side of this total.

The NHL free pick is on the Over 5 goals tonight.

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