Lincoln Handicap Tips 2011, Doncaster Races
The William Hill Lincoln Handicap, Saturday 2nd April 2011, 1m Doncaster
Professional Punter Carl Harris marks your card ahead of the first big betting handicap of the season, The William Hill Lincoln at Doncaster.
The flat season is already under way but this is the first big handicap of the season, the traditional curtain raiser to the season, run over the straight mile on Town Moor, Doncaster, on turf. You can expect a cavalry charge, with 22 runners contesting the William Hill Lincoln, on Saturday, 3.10 Live on Channel 4. The ground looks set to be good, perfect going, unless unforecast rain materialises.
The draw is often the key to the William Hill Lincoln. The favourite Penitent came from stall 1 last year which is occupied this time round by the Richard Fahey trained Prime Exhibit. The punters had it right last year backing Penitent heavily who won very readily under Johnny Murtagh. Penitent was not declared, seeming to have a big weight and unsuitable ground. This year there has been a gamble of a similar magnitude on Taqleed , trained by John Gosden.
Taqleed is rumoured to be a very well treated horse and could be another John Gosden coup. Gosden was concerned earlier in the week that Taqleed would be balloted out, but he gets in the race comfortably and is the one the punters have latched on to. Potentially this is a group horse masquerading as a handicapper, not for the first time from the John Gosden stable. He won the Lincoln in 2009 with Express Star who had a similar profile and landed a mammoth gamble.
Taqleed is drawn in stall 11, right in the middle, and will be able get over to the favoured side quite easily. Richard Hills is a hugely experienced jockey and an excellent tactician. Backers have a very good jockey on side. Everything points to a big run from Taqleed. Bookmakers are bracing themselves for a big payout if the favourite prevails, which would make it three years in a row that the gambled on favourite has won the William Hill Lincoln. So is Taqleed good enough to win?
The first point to make is that there has been so much money on Taqleed and as we know money talks, here it is rather shouting at us! The four year-old gelding is lightly raced, to say the least, with only four career starts, winning two of them and was last seen when sixth in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket. Rated only 95 here this could be a genuine handicap coup and from the Gosden yard. You can rely on the fact that it will be fit and ready. In my view the gamble will be landed. I think Taqleed will win the Lincoln cosily.
As usual Yorkshire trainers will be out in force to foil the Newmarket jolly. Dandy Nicholls and Richard Fahey are leading the home challenge. Fahey who trains in Malton has six entries including last year’s second Prime Exhibit, as well as Castles In The Air, Brae Hill, Our Joe Mac and Irish Heartbeat, with champion jockey Paul Hanagan electing to ride Irish Heartbeat. Thirsk based Nicholls has another strong contingent with Light From Mars, Docofthebay, Al Muheer and Dream Lodge all going to post. Between the two they saddle almost have half the field. In my view Irish Heart Beat and Prime Exhibit are the only two genuine contenders, both drawn low in stall 7 and 1 respectively. Fahey and Nicholls are stables to follow this season, that is for sure.
Barry Hills saddles Gunner Lindley who holds vey strong claims. Stall 18 though could be a disadvantage but off bottom weight the four year-old definitely has the speed to win over a mile as we saw at York where he won last time out. Richard Hannon, Champion Trainer, has started his season powerfully with plenty of winners and he relies on just one runner, Fremont, again drawn high in stall 21. Off the track for almost a year it is interesting that Ryan Moore takes the ride and he is another mahor player, as the market shows.
Taqleed though is my strong recommendation for the William Hill Lincoln, to win. Having said the favourite will win, for those wanting an outsider with a live chance I recommend Tartan Gigha trained by Mark Johnston and the mount of the excellent Sylvester De Souza. 20/1 generally the six year-old split Lowther and Prime Exhibit at Wolverhampton in a warm-up race a couple of weeks ago. It is a trait, which Johnston will deny, that his horses come on for their first run of the season, so improvement is expected. De Souza completed a maiden century of winners on the last day of last season and is a jockey to follow in 2011.
It may be all too obvious to recommend the favourite, but the dogs are barking in Newmarket and are being heard in all four corners of the land. The stats show that this is a punter’s race in recent years and with a group horse, potentially, running off a mark of 95, given its connections Taqleed is the one to be on.
William Hill Lincoln Betting Tips;
- · Taqleed- back to win
- · Tartan Giga – back each way.
BETTING TIP: Find the Winner and get a Free Bet from Bet365….
You may want to take a look at Bet365.com who offer a free bet to the same value if you back a winner on Channel 4, over odds of 4/1. Most of, if not all, will be bigger than 4/1. They also offer £200 in free bets when you open an account.
Victor Chandler will refund the losing win stake up to £50 as a free bet on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th in Saturday’s William Hill Lincoln from Doncaster.
The money will be in accounts at 9am Monday and can be reinvested on next week’s Champions League, US Masters or Aintree Grand National Festival.
William Hill Lincoln: ew ¼ 1,2,3,4: (money back for 2-4th inc as a free bet to £50)
Taqleed 7/2
Prime Exhibit 9/1
Irish Heartbeat 10
Gunner Lindley 10
Lowther 14
Our Joe Mac 14/1
16s bar.
